Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 26.941416 28.704150 30.595084 32.787169 35.274943 38.030805 41.343320
2025-11-23 24.587672 27.023717 29.791950 33.217403 37.411688 42.479128 49.231038
2025-11-30 22.998186 25.748709 28.985738 33.160925 38.539811 45.451959 55.418200
2025-12-07 21.652352 24.573890 28.103210 32.802930 39.108061 47.638439 60.828996
2025-12-14 20.104177 23.007456 26.571806 31.414710 38.084933 47.426210 62.599056
2025-12-21 19.402662 22.428574 26.217172 31.494804 39.010163 50.021394 69.154161
2025-12-28 18.906731 22.064548 26.093437 31.844409 40.312446 53.316642 77.651805
2026-01-04 18.082519 21.224555 25.279527 31.155759 39.993147 53.986489 81.535202
2026-01-11 17.804366 21.077107 25.373605 31.743834 41.642664 58.101026 93.386956
2026-01-18 17.446252 20.799513 25.264960 32.015364 42.807269 61.556862 105.186601
2026-01-25 16.848457 20.170152 24.630923 31.452805 42.548906 62.363563 111.026195
2026-02-01 16.299326 19.584140 24.028359 30.895604 42.241318 63.021714 116.772292
2026-02-08 15.580302 18.809354 23.220853 30.131202 41.789198 63.895228 125.498955
2026-02-15 15.245331 18.557330 23.159740 30.545778 43.487669 69.686002 154.790748
2026-02-22 14.818128 18.147289 22.832346 30.489770 44.307282 73.800766 183.926816
2026-03-01 14.361944 17.672603 22.378238 30.182431 44.606095 76.805289 213.845565
2026-03-08 13.710411 16.892951 21.428896 28.982191 43.036277 74.816555 215.614875
2026-03-15 13.427361 16.629661 21.243517 29.051613 43.979487 79.582244 268.646323
2026-03-22 13.221565 16.467307 21.199850 29.354278 45.434075 86.296503 366.665708
2026-03-29 12.818151 16.000940 20.664012 28.757734 44.923153 87.133455 416.225457
2026-04-05 12.693372 15.937923 20.751081 29.267244 46.867232 96.421504 698.416763
2026-04-12 12.514783 15.787067 20.690182 29.502151 48.239347 104.613489 1337.135660
2026-04-19 12.193304 15.411600 20.254162 29.015224 47.874175 106.322792 1996.309917